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UAF Will Putman, Forestry Director, Tanana Chiefs Conference, Fbks. FORESTRY         Highly Sensitive to Climate Change            Low to moderate Adaptability            Highly vulnerable    Climate change predictions for Interior alska are for warmer summer and winter temperatures, with increased precipitation, but overall drying due to increased evapo-transpiration. This will affect a number of aspects of forestry, most notably; ok           -increased permafrost melt along with increased flooding and erosion problems may alter forests or access to them for logging, recreation, or habitat, and greater damage to streambanks and mechanical damage to trees and root systems and structures. ok            -shorter, warmer winters could decrease logging on snow covered frozen soils  ok  Not that there s that much logging occurring currently.  Access to winter logging operations is also affected by ability to build ice bridges across rivers and waterways.  On the other hand, warmer conditions causing thawing of permafrost and draining of wetlands, combined with longer summer seasons could result in more favorable conditions for all-season roads and summer logging.         -drought stress to trees limits growth and decreases their resistance to insects and disease. White spruce have been seriously affected the past 4 years with spruce bud worm, most tamarack over 4 inches have died out largely due to larch sawfly infestation.  ok            -existing tree and plant species moving north and/or upward in elevation; we may lose white spruce and birch components the Interior boreal forest. ok, but spruce and birch will be replaced by something, will black spruce sites shift to white spruce?  There maybe an increase in Aspen and Cottonwood and Aspen cover types, with a much higher growth rate in sites previous occupied by black spruce.  The warming of the black spruce sites may allow for a period of time for the white spruce to occupy the site but it will probably eventually transition to a more hardwood dominated stand.  The birch presence is seriously compromised due to it water uptake and internal moisture stress physiology.  With warmer weather we will likely be seeing more periods of the growing season that can support active photosynthesis. ))))))) It s hard for me to imagine wholesale disappearance of any of the existing species, but rather a shift of which sites support what species, and not necessarily a north/upward trend.  This wouldn t necessarily require migration of species from one site to another  some examples I can think of are cooler wetter sites (north facing slopes, lower slopes) where white spruce or birch currently exists in a slow growing form.  Sites  in interior Alaska can be quite dynamic with or without climate change  for example, thawing or warming of soil after a fire resulting in different species, growth rates, and successional regimes than would occur otherwise.           - some invasive species and/or migrating species (lodgepole pine) may move northwest from our southeastern borders, competing with and perhaps replacing native species. In the case of lodge pole pine, which once lived here in the past,that may provide an alternate source of timber to the white spruce we will lose.  Other species will show up, but more slowly like the true firs.             -defoliating insects such as the spruce bud worm causing widespread death of upper canopies and trees. Other hardwood defoliators and leaf miners will have substantial impacts on tree health throughout the region.  Tree diseases, especially root rot infections may be favored by warmer soil temperatures leading to greater stress on both hardwoods and conifers.  Defoliators typically do not kill trees outright, but can set up a tree for secondary problems.  Larch sawfly may be an exception to this, but I believe that is an introduced insect.  A bigger issue, at least in conifers, would be bark beetles, which do cause direct mortality, and whose populations could be determined to be positively affected by climate change.           -decreased resistance to disease causing more death of trees         -survival of birch is greatly compromised by its high sensitivity to moisture stress likely leading to their elimination on dry or well drain sites and major reduction in its current distribution throughout the region.  Again reduction in distribution may be likely, but a shift in suitable sites may also occur to offset that.         -temperatures fluctuating above and below freezing in January and then a return of minus zero temperatures creates a serious physiological problem for the trees as reflected by winter kill of foliage, buds, and branches.  (this one I wouldn't include.  Our northern species are very slow in bud break and these species exist in areas to the south that have much more erratic swings in winter temperature. I would expect our exotic landscape specimens to get really tricked by this before native species do)  I agree  I would expect exotics to have more problems with this.Karl,  Sorry but this really is true as evidenced by tree problems in the area such as the documented problems with winter kill in the Healy area.  This will become even more of an issue as we have mid-winter temperature fluctuations. )))))))         -overall loss of species (white spruce and birch) used for firewood         -earlier fire season, made worse by;  this is worded awkwardly  some of what you listed here are effects of increased fire, not causes for earlier fire seasons.                 -earlier snow-free springs                 -greater number of thunder storms with more lightning strikes (the major cause of forest fires in Alaska)causing greater fire season losses and shorter fire return freauency  I assume this is from your weather predictors  I wouldn t know this to be true.  Warmer, drier conditions will definitely have effects on the fire regime  I just wasn t sure about changes in ignition sources                   -overall drying of biomass in the area  (greatest impact on the forest floor biomass loss of a major source of carbon stored in the ground)                 -greater abundance of standing dead insect- and disease-killed trees                 -increased forest fire threat causes;                 -more air pollution, PM2.5, asthma, allergies                 -decreased opportunties for summer recreation, tourism                 -exposed, burned over ground  will  accelerate permafrost melt    ( is more likely to allow) deleted                 -darkened burned ground absorbs even more heat from sun                 -potential threat to homes, buildings, towns, utility infrastructure         -overall loss of current habitat for many animal species dependent on white spruce/birch forest , but an increase in other types of species.            -possible replacement of current forest lands by alder/grasslands           -loss of quality of living for residents  This sounds pretty slippery  define  quality of living first.   For the above reasons, we find forest systems are highly sensitive to climate change to the degree predicted, and are already showing marked stresses from recent elevations of year-round temperature, most notably white spruce death from spruce bud worms and bark beetle infestations. If warming trends continue, negative feedback loops  will accelerate the intensity of the stresses, impacts and changes to the boreal forest that supports life in the FNSB. Predictions to date have been shown to be conservative realtive to the actual observed results, which seem to be showing changes occuring more quickly than anticipated.  I may be wrong, but I haven t seen much death (yet) from spruce budworm, just lots of munched trees with dead tops.  And, support of whose life in the borough?   If it s our life you mean (people), perhaps  lifestyle is a better word.   Forest systems are adaptable to the extent they can slowly migrate up in elevation, or farther north in latitude so as to accomodate to changing conditions, but locally, there is little they can do.  Other harvestable species such as lodge pole pine may migrate from the southeast to make up for the loss of white spruce. Nor is there much we can do other than halting the climate chagne itself. Wide scale prevention of infestations of damaging insects is not cost effective or perhaps even possible, considering the huge scope and area involved. Therefore, we consider forest systems to be minimally adaptive to climate change, and, consequently highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.   The economic impact of climate change on forests could be huge, and would include;         -loss of timber products locally (fire, insects, diseases, drying of soils)         -loss of firewood sources locally (ditto)         -loss of recreational activities related to forest dwellers (moose, bear, grouse)         -loss of man made structures to forest fires         -possible repacement of white spruce with lodge pole pine as a marketable timber source     Suggested short term actions; Immediate development and implementation of forest fire awareness and control programs on local and state levels. It is critical that communities in the borough pursue the development of fuel breaks and reduction of spruce dominated stands in fuel control zones. The development of shaded fuel breaks dominated by hardwoods will serve to reduce fire risk.  Fire management plans for effective control of wildfires in protection zones near communities may need to be enhanced along with more focus on emergency evacuation plans.  The development of the new area-wide firewise landscaping publication (with climate change considerations included) will be of assistance with this effort.    Reduce the Carbon foot print of the FNTSB. and develop a plan to become a carbon neutral borough     Suggested mid term goals; The catastrophic effects of extensive wildfires on the release of immense quantities of carbon and related gases are detrimental to air quality and human health.  Controlled release of gases  through controlled burning of fuel wood would be one option, another is to convert dead and dying trees into value added wood products such as the wood composite deck materials, pellets for fuel, or as furniture and house or saw logs.  The Borough needs to make broad reaching plans for development of  an energy sustainable community that can depend upon its own resources for long-term energy self-sufficency through both summer and winter weather extremes.  We need to initiate an immediate increase in funding for home weatherization, green building initiatives, alternative energy usage,  and subsidies for alternative energy sources away from coal, oil, and natural gas.  Increase energy efficiency and conservation across the board is ever sector.  The only way to slow permafrost degradation is to slow or halt human caused global warming.  Implement carbon neutral plan  Suggested long term goals; The Borough needs to make broad reaching plans for development of  an energy sustainable community that can depend upon its own resources for long-term energy self-sufficency through both summer and winter weather extremes.  We need to initiate an immediate increase in funding for home weatherization, green building initiatives, alternative energy usage,  and subsidies for alternative energy sources away from coal, oil, and natural gas.  Increase energy efficiency and conservation across the board is ever sector.  The only way to slow permafrost degradation is to slow or halt human caused global warming.  These efforts should be begun immiediately and carried on as standard operating procedure forever   Become a Carbon Neutral Community.     Striving for carbon neutrality sounds good, as does short and long-term attention paid to wildfire protection through fuel breaks, etc.   Controlled release of gases through controlled burning of fuel wood sounds a bit too tricky if attempted with large-scale prescribed burning, if air quality and emissions is your primary goal.  Value added wood products may have some bearing in the immediate vicinity of communities, but the overall impact on the landscape doesn t seem realistic without a massive ramping up of commercial wood uses.     Bottom line  the boreal forest, with or without climate change, is much more dynamic than many people realize, and arguably more dynamic than many other forest types elsewhere.  In an already constantly changing system such as the boreal forest, it can be difficult to sort out which changes are the result of climate change and which are due to  normal dynamics of the system.  I think in some cases it s further confounded by effects occurring in opposing trends in different areas or under different conditions.  I m NOT trying to dispute the presence of climate change, I m just probably overly sensitive to oversimplifications of a very complex system.  I envision the forest changing, but not going away. 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